Oahu Real Estate in 2025: What the Data Shows and What It Means for You in 2026
If you've been watching the Oahu market from the sidelines, wondering whether now is the right time to buy, 2025 just handed you a roadmap. The Honolulu Board of REALTORS released its full-year data, and the picture is nuanced in a way that actually works in your favor as a buyer heading into 2026. There's more to work with than there was two years ago, and understanding the specifics by neighborhood and property type makes all the difference.
Let's break down what actually happened and what you should do with that information.
The Big Numbers From 2025
The headline stat from the Honolulu Board of REALTORS' December 2025 market report:
a total of 2,890 single-family homes and 4,408 condominiums sold on Oahu in 2025, representing a combined 0.6% increase in residential resale activity compared to 2024. Single-family home sales rose 3.5% year-over-year, while condo sales slipped 1.1%.
The median sales price for single-family homes finished the year at $1,139,000, up 3.5% from $1,100,000 in 2024. Condo prices moved in the opposite direction, with the annual median declining 1.5% to $507,250.
What does that split tell you? The two property types are on genuinely different trajectories right now, and your strategy should reflect that.
Single-family homes recorded a median of 23 days on market, up from 19 in 2024, while condos remained on the market longer, with median days on market growing from 30 to 44 days.
Months of remaining inventory also diverged:
MRI was 3.5 months for homes and 6.6 months for condos.
For single-family homes, competition is real. For condos, buyers have breathing room and genuine negotiating leverage.
If you're trying to make sense of what this means for your specific situation, that's exactly what a strategy call is for. Book time here: calendar.app.google/XE5cY7bgmG7dpKi68
A Tale of Two Markets by Neighborhood
The island-wide numbers are useful, but Oahu's neighborhoods tell very different stories, and where you buy matters as much as what you buy.
### Leeward Oahu (Waianae, Makaha, Ewa Beach, Kapolei)
This stretch of West Oahu remains the most accessible price point for first-time buyers chasing single-family homes.
Most single-family homes that would be considered affordable to a median-income family on Oahu are in the Leeward area, between Waianae and Makaha.
New construction communities like Ho'opili and Koa Ridge are bringing move-in-ready inventory to market in 2026 without the bidding wars that define established neighborhoods.
The trade-off is a longer commute to Honolulu. But for buyers focused on getting into the market and building equity, West Oahu makes real financial sense right now.
Central Oahu (Kaimuki, Nuuanu, Kalihi, Manoa)
Opportunities can be found in established markets closer to town, including Kaimuki, Kalihi, and Nuuanu.
These areas offer the walkability, character, and community feel that buyers often sacrifice when they move out to the leeward side. Kaimuki in particular is one of my favorite value plays on the island because the neighborhood has serious bones and homes there tend to hold their value through market cycles.
Hawaii Kai and Kahala
These remain the premium anchors of the Oahu market.
Hawaii Life's mid-2025 analysis noted that well-priced, move-in-ready homes are selling faster than ever, particularly in the sub-$1.2 million range where the most buyer activity is concentrated.
If your budget reaches Hawaii Kai or Kahala, you're buying into some of the most resilient property values on the island, but expect limited inventory and multiple-offer situations.
The Condo Opportunity in Town
If your budget is in the $400,000 to $600,000 range, the condo market is genuinely worth a second look.
December 2025 data from the Honolulu Board of REALTORS showed that condo sales growth was driven heavily by the $200,000 to $399,999 range, which surged 52.2% year-over-year.
Buyers in that segment are finding real deals in areas like Kakaako, Ala Moana, and Downtown Honolulu.
The caveat: condo fees and insurance costs have risen across the board. Before you fall in love with a unit, you need to understand the full monthly cost. My Buyer's Guide walks you through how to evaluate total cost of ownership: maihomeshi.com/download-buyers-guide
What the 2026 Outlook Actually Means for You
"As mortgage rates have come down and stabilized, buyers and sellers are finding the confidence to move forward," said Locations Hawaii Chief Sales Officer Chad Takesue.
The so-called lock-in effect, where homeowners with sub-3% and sub-4% mortgages refused to sell, is slowly fading.
According to the Honolulu Board of REALTORS' October 2025 economic forum, 31% of mortgages are still sub-4%, but life happens and those homes are starting to come to market.
The Oahu real estate market is poised for moderate growth heading into 2026, with prices for the year rising by four percent for homes and dipping one percent for condos. The divergence between the two markets that characterized 2025 is reversing, as the condo market gradually strengthens.
More supply, stabilizing rates, and a condo market offering genuine negotiating leverage: this is a setup that is more favorable to buyers than Oahu has seen in several years. But single-family home inventory is still lean, and well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods move fast. Getting fully pre-approved before you start touring is not optional. It is what separates buyers who close from buyers who lose.
Three Steps to Take Before You Buy on Oahu in 2026
1. Get fully pre-approved, not just pre-qualified. A pre-approval letter from a local lender signals to Oahu sellers that you are a serious, capable buyer. Sellers and their agents notice the difference.
2. Narrow your neighborhood before you narrow your property type. Oahu is a small island, but the lifestyle difference between Kailua, Kapolei, and Kaimuki is enormous. Drive the commute at rush hour. Walk to the coffee shop. The neighborhood you choose is where you'll build your life.
3. Understand your true monthly cost, not just the purchase price. On Oahu, HOA fees, property taxes, homeowner's insurance, and mortgage insurance all stack up. My Buyer's Guide walks you through how to calculate this before you fall in love with a listing: maihomeshi.com/download-buyers-guide
Let's Make a Plan
Data doesn't buy houses. Strategy does. If you're planning to buy on Oahu in 2026, the best thing you can do right now is sit down with a Realtor who knows this market and build a plan around your budget, your timeline, and your priorities.
I've helped buyers navigate everything from first-time purchases in Ewa Beach to multi-home searches in Kailua. As a Senior Real Estate Specialist (SRES) and Military Relocation Professional (MRP), I also specialize in helping families navigating major life transitions, including PCS moves to Hawaii.
Let's talk about your 2026 plan: calendar.app.google/XE5cY7bgmG7dpKi68
Mai Kashihara | Realtor, eXp Realty Hawaii | License RS-84287, SRES, MRP
(808) 782-0072 | mai@maihomeshi.com | maihomeshi.com
Sources: Honolulu Board of REALTORS December 2025 Market Report (hicentral.com); Locations Hawaii October and December 2025 Market Reports (locationshawaii.com); Hawaii Life Oahu Market Analysis July 2025 (hawaiilife.com).
